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If the IT economy is going to turn around, it will be the second part of next year led by a PC and low-end server upgrade cycle, so say industry prognosticators at several analyst groups.
Earlier this month, New York-based Fitch Ratings gave its assessment of major influences on the economy going forward and the next 6 months look pretty shaky.
“Any growth improvement will be gradual as end-user companies continue to face economic and competitive pressures, particularly in the telecommunications equipment segment. As a result, pricing pressure will remain severe as companies focus on maximizing network and system productivity in the lowest-cost manner,” said Fitch senior director Brendan Buckley.
Buckley says low levels of IT investment over the past couple years could lead to pent-up demand, but meaningful growth is unlikely. Fitch estimates the IT sector will grow by mid single digit rates in 2003 with the hardware segment, particularly personal computers, potentially experiencing the greatest turnaround.
Hardware watchers at Deutsche Bank Securities say the salesmen they’ve interviewed describe themselves as being “bruised and beaten up” after a tough 2002. Nonetheless, they feel they have seen the worst and are hopeful that demand patterns will gradually improve in 2003. Of the salesmen polled, some 80 percent believe a recovery is in the works for next year. One problem they point to is lack of new applications and the fact that CIOs are still looking for instant gratification and instantaneous ROI. Accordingly, they believe major new projects may take longer to be initiated.
“With that said, salesmen believe utilization rates are back to historical highs and they believe customers will be forced or compelled to look for upgrades and more computing power to meet these new demands,” said Deutsche Bank analyst George Elling. “While this is certainly a positive for the industry, the current pricing environment has driven price performance up dramatically which could lead to significant box replacements but at lower price levels.”
Out of the more than $1.26 trillion that the Aberdeen Group expects companies worldwide to spend on information technology next year, purchases will consist mostly of hardware, software, and services, with the services segment representing approximately 50 of the total. Even online marketing is expected to come back around in 2003.
“The catalysts for technology spending growth have undergone a fundamental change,” said Hugh Bishop, Aberdeen senior vice president and author of the report, Worldwide IT Spending 2003-2006: Measuring the Incremental Recovery. “Top-line revenues, capital spending levels, and national economic health now dictate IT purchases. As a result, industry growth will be more incremental and tied to basic business principles.”
Aberdeen’s numbers also indicate worldwide hardware expenditures will increase a total of only 8.3 percent from 2002 to 2006, while software and services will increase 27.2 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, over the same time period.
Aberdeen expects that China will vault from the sixth largest market for IT products and services (in 2002) to the third largest market by 2006, surpassing the Germany, U.K., France, and Italy.
So why will hardware be the knight in shining armor for next year’s economy? The key, say analysts, will be price wars augmented by new technology.
Traditionally, Dell Computer had spurred the most response in the hardware market by aggressively cutting prices, but Fitch researchers say certain diverse product categories from IBM and Hewlett-Packard as well as their stronger credit profile give the top two server players the flexibility to keep Dell at bay as they fight for market share.
Analysts also say the blade server revolution is expected to continue as well as a need to upgrade to faster servers fueled by new Intel Xeon and Itanium server chips as well as the long-awaited AMD Hammer series semiconductors – Athlon64s (Clawhamer) and Opterons (Sledgehammer).
“From an industry and end-market perspective, IT growth in 2003 will be dependent on manufacturing, banking, and government spending. The consumer portion of IT spending represents slightly less than 7 of the total and this has declined over the years and should grow at a slower pace than the overall market in the next few years,” said Fitch Ratings Director Nick Nilarp.
Many companies are focused on hardware consolidation; however, Deutsche Bank says the high-end market is showing extremely mixed results. In the case of IBM’s zSeries, Linux has stimulated some demand and the traditional mainframe users remain a viable outlet for the product family.
“However, even after a turbo refresh in the fall, the current Z family needs a next generation product which salesmen believe will take place late in the first quarter or in the second quarter of 2003,” said Elling. “Although MIPS growth is likely to be somewhat anemic in Q402 we believe IBM has held its own quite well.”
With regard to other high-end mainframe equivalent offerings including F15K from Sun and SuperDome from Hewlett-Packard, Deutsche Bank says salesmen view demand as somewhat mixed, reflecting a high-end IT spending problem. Demand for the high-end tends to be from existing users that have budgeted for large systems as critical projects. With customers looking to save funds, the consolidation trend has largely slowed. Sun salesmen categorized F15K business as being “okay” but certainly not stellar and Hewlett salesmen point to good growth in SuperDome, although from a somewhat limited base.
Mid-range servers are still the domain of Unix as neither NT nor Linux scale above a 4- or 8-way system effectively. However, analysts are watching this market closely and believe Intel-based servers, Linux, and to some extent NT will begin to gain momentum in this area over the next year. Traditional workhorse machine such as the 6800 from Sun, the Regatta (p690) from IBM, and the N-series from HP have all had their days in the sun. Momentum is currently not what was seen in the late 1990s and Dell has its sights on this marketplace.
“As yet, salesmen at other companies do not view Dell as a key competitor. Lower end products like the V880 and the soon to be introduced 1280 from Sun as well as the p650 and p670 (Baby Regatta) from IBM are also encroaching on this market,” said Elling.
Deutsche Bank says significant demand continues to be seen for low-end servers and it is here that most analysts point to Linux, NT, and Intel-based server as dominant factors. Dell’s aggressive marketing thrust and the intrigue of Linux has fueled overall demand. Although companies like Sun with its LX50 and others are still attempting to hold on to their market share, Deutsche Bank says salesmen surveyed about this low-end servers view this market as a particularly difficult one in which to stave off encroachment.
The open source community continues to gain momentum and major corporations are increasingly looking to Linux as a key operating system for the future.
“Although our sales contacts have mixed views, it seems as if the Linux momentum will be difficult to stop,” said Elling.
Criticisms of Linux revolve around scalability, but this problem should be solved in the near future. In addition, as an open source community, some believe the necessary protocols and systems will be difficult to standardize. Some salesmen, particularly at Sun, point to the current lack of true applications to run on Linux.
The company most likely to be negatively impacted will be Sun (although Sun has endorsed Linux and is probably debating internally how aggressive to become in this arena). For now, Sun appears to keep Linux on the periphery and maintain its power sales on Solaris.
Finally, while the majority of analysts say the big boom of the late 90s will not show its head for some time, 2003 should be noted as a recovery year.
Long-term IT spending is gated by gross domestic product (GDP) growth and corporate revenue growth. IT spending now accounts for 3.88 percent of the world GDP and 4.42 percent of the U.S. GDP.
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Windows Server 2003: “Inside The Box”
More, better, faster, cheaper…These are the adjectives one expects to see manufacturers use in the descriptions of new products, including operating systems. Microsoft is no exception – or are they? “Windows Server 2003 is the fastest, most reliable, most secure Windows Server operating system ever offered by Microsoft,” trumpets the company in one of its introductory pieces. This would indicate the firm’s focus on reliability and security. Taking a closer look should show us what Microsoft means.
Before reviewing what’s in the new OS, it’s important to remember what this release is and what it is not. This release is a replacement for the Windows 2000 Server family, which includes the Server, Advanced Server, and Datacenter Server.
However, because of its close cousin, Windows XP, Windows Server 2003 is not entirely new to us. Codenamed Whistler, the new OS was intended to replace the entire Windows 2000 family of workstations and servers. While the workstation systems, in the guises of Windows XP Home and Professional, were released in 2001, the server versions were delayed, in large part due to Microsoft’s Trustworthy Computing Initiative (TCI), in which all development was stopped while Microsoft’s software engineers looked for security issues in their respective products.
Many of the new features in the 2003 server operating systems are already familiar to us from XP. The time gap between the releases of the workstation and server systems has been used to incorporate the robustness needed for Microsoft to be able to make its “most reliable, most secure” boast.
There are six editions of Windows Server 2003, including Web, Standard, Enterprise, and Datacenter editions for the x86 CPU, and 64-bit Enterprise and Datacenter editions for the Itanium CPU. Windows Server 2003 is the first server operating system to include the .Net Framework as an integrated part of the system. Both versions 1.0 and 1.1 are included in the x86 editions; the 64-bit .Net is not yet ready, however, and as a result is not included in the 64-bit editions at this time.
The Core of the System
The core technologies of the Windows Server 2003 family form the basis of the improved performance, reliability, and security it delivers. The Common Language Runtime (CLR) verifies code before executing it to ensure that the coee runs error free (from the OS point of view – not necessarily the user’s!). The CLR also monitors memory allocations to clean up memory leakage problems and checks security permissions to ensure that code only performs suitable functions. Thus, the CLR reduces the number of bugs and security holes opened up by programming errors and improves system reliability and performance.
Internet Information Services (IIS) 6.0 is much more security conscious than its predecessor. The default IIS 6.0 installation is configured in a “locked down” state, requiring that administrators open up desired features. In fact, a default installation of Windows Server 2003 doesn’t install IIS at all (except for the Web Edition).
In earlier OS versions, IIS was installed by default and had to be removed if it was not needed, such as on a database server. The default install of IIS 6.0 will only serve up static pages and has to be configured to allow dynamic content. Timeouts are also set to aggressive defaults. Authorization and authentication – the “who are you?” and “what can you do?” mechanisms – are upgraded with the inclusion of .Net Passport support in the Windows Server 2003 authorization framework, enabling the use of these services in the core IIS web server.
IIS 6.0 itself now runs as a low-privileged network services account to help contain security vulnerabilities. Performance has not been forgotten either, with the tuning of many of the underlying service implementations and the addition of support for hardware-based cryptographic service accelerator cards to take the SSL cryptography load off the CPU.
Configuration information for IIS 6.0 is stored in a plain-text XML metabase, as opposed to the proprietary binary file used for IIS 4.0 and 5.0. This metabase can be opened in notepad to make configuration changes such as adding new virtual directories or a new web site (which could be copied from an existing site’s configuration). When the changes are saved to disk, the changes are detected, scanned for errors, and applied to the metabase. IIS does not need to be restarted for the changes to take effect.
Additionally, the old metabase file is marked with a version number and automatically saved in a history folder for use in case a rollback or restore is required. All changes made take effect without the need for any restarts. Additionally, there are two new Admin Base Object (ABO) methods that enable export or import of configuration nodes from server to server. A server independent method for backup and restore of the metabase is also available.
Page 2: Enhanced Management Services in Windows Server 2003
Here’s How Fast The 2023 Macbook Pro 15 Will Be
With Apple announcing Thursday that it has dropped a 6-core 8th-gen Core i7 8750H into the MacBook Pro 15 there are two things we know for sure. The first is that the boost in performance will be huge. The second: It still won’t be faster than the fastest PC laptops.
The big news for Apple users is the six cores in the Core i7-8750H. Those two additional cores compared to quad-core parts means hefty improvements in 3D modelling, video editing, and many optimized photo editing tasks.
We compare 7th-gen and 8th-gen CPUsTo show the performance we expect, we’ve compiled the results from several laptops equipped with high-end 7th-gen CPUs, including the quad-core Core i7-7700HQ that’s used in the 2023 MacBook Pro 15. We’ll compare them to the results from a laptop with the 8th-gen Core i7-8750H in the new 2023 MacBook Pro 15.
Our first comparison runs Maxon’s Cinebench R15, which tests 3D modelling performance. You can see about a 50-percent increase in performance between the six-core Core i7-8750H and the typical 7th-gen part, such as that Core i7-7700HQ.
We won’t bore you with too many charts of the 8th-gen Core i7-8750H’s multi-threaded prowess, as you can see them in our review of it here. You’ll see varying amounts of performance gains based on how optimized the CPUs are, but the story is still the same: It’s a ton faster.
IDG
A new 8th-gen Core i7-8750H in the 2023 MacBook Pro 15 would give you about a 50-percent performance increase over the previous MacBook Pro 15 (represented by the Core i7-7700HQ-equipped laptop shown here) in multi-threaded tasks.
For example, here’s how the same CPU performs in video encoding. While you don’t get quite a 50-percent improvement, it’s still about 33 percent, which means that a comparable three-hour encode could be done in about two hours. When you’re in the field on a shoot, and time is money, then yeah, that’s more money.
IDG
Handbrakes sees about a 33-percent buff by going from a 7th-gen Core i7 to an 8th-gen Core i7.
IDG
For the most part, the new 8th-gen Core i7 still gives decent performance benefits over the older 7th-gen Core i7 CPUs.
IDG
Thanks to very high clock speeds when given lightly threaded tasks such as browsing or Microsoft Word, the 8th-gen Core i7 Coffee Lake H CPU in the new MacBook Pro 15 will be faster than its direct predecessor.
What we do know from previous MacBook Pro laptops is that Apple generally does not like to leave performance untapped, so we expect it to swing for the fences.
IDG
The PC is still faster than MacBook Pro 15So after seeing everything above, how can we say for a fact that the new 2023 MacBook Pro 15 won’t be faster than PC laptops? For one thing, PCs offer larger form factors that let the 8th-gen CPUs run even faster. Also, the graphics in the new 2023 MacBook Pro 15 haven’t changed much.
Apple is apparently still relying on the elderly AMD Radeon Pro lineup for graphics. In the single laptop our sister site Macworld saw, the unit had a Radeon Pro 555X in it. Despite the X, it’s the same old thing. AMD just added the ‘X’ to make everyone feel better. It’s actually a decent discrete GPU, but in pure performance, it’s not going to win any contests beyond tasks heavily optimized for it.
IDG
The Radeon Pro 555X in the new 2023 MacBook Pro 15 should fall below that of the Kaby Lake G-series of chips in the HP Spectre x360 15. That’s not bad, but it ain’t no GeForce GTX 1080.
Let’s give Apple a shout-outWhile it’s easy for PC partisans to issue a Simpsons’ Nelson Muntz-like “ha ha,” we should be fair and give Apple its due credit. Even with its flawed keyboard, the MacBook Pro 15 has been an impressively thin laptop with relatively good battery life for its power ratio.
And yes, PC laptops have been using 8th-gen Core i7 CPUs for more than three months now. But to have Apple upgrade the MacBook Pro 15 to a CPU that came out just three months ago, rather than dragging it out for another six or nine months, is actually a huge improvement in responsiveness from the company.
It’s hard to believe, but it’s entirely possible that Apple may have finally woken up, which means PC laptop makers may finally see their old slumbering foe for another fight.
Asp Will Be Dead In A Year
In a year’s time the ASP “phenomenon” will have ground to a halt. I won’t dignify it by calling it an industry, but whatever it is, will be no more.
Don’t get me wrong–the concept of software as a service, which is the essence of ASP, is a very good one, and, hence, is here to stay. The delivery of software to a user’s desk across a network is also set to become a major trend for the future.
So how can these two apparently contradictory statements be reconciled?
Let us look back a year or so, to the start of the ASP “phenomenon.” A small number of companies invested heavily in building data centers on the principle that “if we have this capability, customers will come.” Investors also held the view that there was massive potential in delivering applications from these centers to millions of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Based on this potential, analysts started projecting billions of dollars of ASP business. Hence, more people began investing in the industry.
At the same time a whole host of software houses, network suppliers, ISPs, and consultants started labeling themselves as ASPs, thus fueling analyst forecasts. This, in turn, led to further investment and so the story continues.
Where Are We Now?
Most companies have finally realized that delivering applications as a service is not too different to delivering applications as a product. The service needs tailoring, it needs someone the customer can trust, and it needs expertise in both the product and the customer. Inevitably, there are exceptions, and real volume commodity businesses may emerge in real commodity spaces such as mail, messaging, and office.
However, for the most part, the level of skill needed to deliver applications across a network is higher than that required to deliver a product. What we, therefore, see today is many start-up companies retrenching practices and workforce and cutting costs. Many are also moving their business models to a more service-oriented model, with consultancy and tailoring being key elements.
What’s more, the term ASP has become tainted. ASP has the same ring about it as chúng tôi –it smacks of start-ups and perhaps unreliable organizations–exactly what you don’t want when entrusting your applications to another company. There is some justification for these concerns, as very little thought has actually been given to some of the risks of the software rental model.
Where Will We Be Next Year?
I believe we will see a managed service model emerging as a standard way of doing business. This will be a service delivered to a company by a Managed Service Provider (MSP), which may be on a rental model, and it may be shared to a certain extent or it may be individual to the company in question.
This new model will carry many of the benefits that were touted for ASPs. For example, time-to-market and availability of skills. But, to my mind, it will not carry expectations of a substantial price shift. There will also be no pretense that “one size fits all.” This new model will, however, require the same involvement between company and vendor as any application deployment always requires.
Some of the companies emerging as MSPs will have started out as ASPs. Others will emerge from an outsourcing or systems integration background. But, in order to succeed, this should be an activity founded on good practice and technology, and not on hype. As such, MSPs stand a good chance of becoming a self-sustaining, long-term component of the IT industry.
Will The New World Of Software Doom Your Career?
By Gordon Benett
Let’s begin at the end. It’s a few years down the road, and Web Services have succeeded beyond all but the wildest evangelist’s dreams. Bandwidth is infinite, storage costs a penny per gigabyte, and Quake (with user-configurable music and avatars, of course) is a cell-phone app. AOL and Microsoft own the consumer Internet like Coke and Pepsi own cola.
In business, software is a mesh of self-describing services communicating via XML-based messages. Standard vocabularies exist for every common human endeavor, and most of the uncommon ones as well, with the implication that software development takes place on a very high baseline of assumptions and embedded functions. Establishing that baseline used to preoccupy teams of programmers for months. No longer.
To write an “application” — though no one would use that quaint term in these modern times — a business analyst drags lines between blocks that represent business functions, things like ebXML-based contract negotiation and supply chain disruption management. These blocks are themselves composed of finer-grained services, many written by high school kids and available for free. The analyst, who might as easily be working on a smart phone as a desktop, uses her business knowledge to set parameters that tailor the generic services to the problem at hand. Reuse is a reality; very little software is written at the code level.
Does this scenario depict a utopia or nightmare for today’s IT professional? One doesn’t have to give a definitive answer to realize that the success of today’s major IT initiatives — ubiquitious connection, near-limitless resources, tinker-toy software assembly — are radically changing the profession.
Just as the invention of the automobile did for makers of horse-drawn carriages, the shift from traditional application development to software assembly is challenging assumptions about how people add value. Whether you suffer or prosper as a result will depend on how you adapt to the coming storm. Here are couple of broad trends you need to reckon with.
Two high-value paths will remain, one deeply technical, the other broadly analytic. This isn’t so much a far-fetched prediction as a stated agenda for Java and other distributed computing paradigms.
According to the book J2EE Technology in Practice, edited by Rick Catell and Jim Inscore of Sun Microsystems (Addison-Wesley, 2001), one of the fundamental design goals of Enterprise Java is to “commoditize expertise.” In order to add value, technical experts will require an under-the-hood appreciation of software tools and systems in order to ensure the robustness and scalability of discrete Web Services.
That means experts in Web Services design will need to focus not only on qualities that make the application itself work, such as performance and transaction integrity, but also on design features like granularity and parameterization, to ensure that the services can be adapted by non-programmers to new environments.
Expertise of a different type will be required to assemble granular Web Services into powerful systems of business automation. Business architects will use technologies descended from today’s Unified Modeling Language (UML) to model their organizations and knit together systems that expedite both internal and partner processes.
According to Sun’s Catell and Inscore, companies will increasingly “focus on recruiting developers based on their understanding of the business needs of the orgnization, not just their ability to solve arcane technical problems.” Indeed, an organization’s ability to analyze its markets and execute in terms of reconfigurable software services will become one of its most agile and potent differentiators.
If the analytic track is your cup of tea, study modeling, specifically UML and XML Schemas. Design patterns are useful here as well, while the emerging field of analysis patterns holds promise. Investigate, and if possible participate, in your industry’s XML standardization initiatives. Most importantly, begin to think about what it would mean to model your business’ marketplace, stakeholders, and processes in terms of a software services architecture. Don’t look for a shelf full of books on the topic — they haven’t been written yet.
If neither hard-core technology nor business architecture suits your profile, don’t despair. There will be a growing demand for support specialists, especially in the areas of security, database administration, network management, and legacy integration. But commoditization of skills will be hard at work here, too, so delve deep and seek out challenging projects.
Gordon Benett is a technology strategist with over 16 years of experience with information systems. He is a senior research analyst with Aberdeen Group, where he follows the Enterprise Java and Middleware markets. In 1996 he founded Intranet Journal, an chúng tôi site, where this story first appeared.
Safemoon V2’S Gloomy Outlook Darkens, Will There Be A Turnaround?
Investors’ sentiment for SafeMoon V2 continued to stay negative.
Most of the technical indicators were bearish on SFM with no sign of recovery.
There is an old saying which goes, “whatever goes up must come down”. And this dictum is perhaps the most accurate depiction of the journey traced by SafeMoon V2 [SFM] over the last two years or so.
How many are 1,10,100 SFMs worth today
The decentralized finance (DeFi) token, which showed immense promise at the peak of 2023 bull run, has been going downhill in price and valuation with no end in sight for its woes.
Even the bullish cycle of 2023, which reinvigorated the broader crypto market, failed to infuse much life into the asset. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, SFM was down more than 27%.
Nothing ‘Safe’ about this journeySFM, which was launched as a BEP20 token on the BNB Chain, was one of the many crypto assets that managed to rake in the moolah during the 2023 market frenzy. It saw soaring valuation and high demand from retail investors.
Furthermore, the SafeMoon team adopted a unique tokenomics model wherein, a 10% tax was imposed on each and every sale of SFM tokens. This strategy discouraged investors from selling as they were at a loss as soon as they invested, thus encouraging long-term holding. The proceeds from the tax were then distributed among SFM holders.
However, because of the mechanism, the community criticized the project as a Ponzi scheme. This was because it pays early adopters while needing an increasing amount of funding to continue rewarding those who join later.
Additionally, it was one of the first instances of the project coming on the radar of crypto watchers. The project tried to address this concern by reducing the rate to 2% for transactions and wallet-to-wallet transfers in its second iteration, V2. But this was not the end of SafeMoon’s problems.
Bitconnect was for a brief moment a top 10 #crypto, the people making money did not want to accept it was a ponzi, they made every excuse to justify it, and attacked anyone who stated the obvious.
Then it rug pulled and everyone lost big time. #safemoon is no different.
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) April 21, 2023
Investors lodge lawsuitsSafeMoon has been at the receiving end of numerous lawsuits, accusing the executives, several celebrities who endorsed the coin, of manipulating investors to hold their tokens.
A large part of the social hype around SafeMoon was driven by celebrity endorsements from musicians Lil’ Yachty and Nick Carter, and YouTuber Logan Paul. These celebrities were later sued by many SafeMoon investors as part of a class-action lawsuit, for being involved in a pump and dump scheme by promoting the SFM token with misleading information.
In a different lawsuit, SafeMoon was charged for selling tokens without identifying them as securities as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
In April 2023, popular Youtuber Stephen “Coffeezilla” Findeisen released a video, accusing the top management, including CEO John Karony, of indulging in possible fraudulent activities. While this was not proven in the courts of law, it did a fair degree of damage.
The latest predicament of SafeMoon was an exploit. A hacker used a bug in the smart contracts to deplete the liquidity pool. The attack cost Safemoon roughly $9 million worth of SFM tokens.
Interestingly, the hacker agreed to return 80% of the total amount, as per a 19 April update provided by SafeMoon.
Dear SafeMoon Family.
A 100BNB test was completed by the party holding the LP funds.
We have confirmed with them that the test was successful.
Next, they will return the full 80 percent of the BNB they hold to the same address.
Following this, SafeMoon tokens from a…
— SafeMoon (@safemoon) April 19, 2023
Gloomy outlookFaced by challenges from multiple fronts, SafeMoon’s future prospects looked dicey. Ambitious plans of launching a cryptocurrency exchange and its own blockchain were pushed back indefinitely.
While the project tried to instill a sense of optimism among its supporters by providing updates about its blockchain development, the absence of timelines summed up the development activity on the network.
Even the official Twitter handle of SafeMoon was dull and provided sporadic updates. This led to a drastic fall in SFM’s social mentions. The metric only showed an uptick when the news of the exploit was revealed.
Investors’ sentiment continued to trend in negative territory. Without any significant network development or real-world use case to put future bets on, users basically shied away from putting their money into a troubled asset.
Is your portfolio green? Check out the SafeMoon Profit Calculator
No sign of recoveryAt the time of writing, SFM exchanged hands at $0.0001556, down by 4.18% in the 24-hour period. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was in the oversold territory, suggesting overtly bearish sentiment for the coin.
The On Balance Volume (OBV) has been in a free fall since mid-April, as capital continued to move out. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) moved below the signal line in the negative territory. This added evidence to the rising sell pressure narrative.
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